The main event of the week will be the US nonfarm payrolls report. The US economy is expected to have added 200,000 jobs in March, slowing from the 275,000 jobs added in February. OPEC countries will meet on Wednesday to discuss further plans for oil production levels. Continued production cuts will further boost oil prices. Also on Wednesday, the Eurozone will release inflation data for March, which will be closely watched amid speculation that the European Central Bank is preparing to cut rates in June. Swiss inflation data and comments from Japanese officials should also be on the trader's watch list for this week. Japanese monetary authorities are on high alert as the Yen is weakening, and recent comments indicate a high probability of currency intervention.
Monday, April 01
Most financial markets will be closed on Monday due to the Easter holiday. However, this will not affect the US, Canada, and some Asian countries. The main report will be the US manufacturing PMI data from ISM. It is expected to show growth, which may positively impact the dollar index. It’s a bank holiday in the United Kingdom, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Norway, France, Spain, Australia, Hong Kong, and New Zealand.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
- – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, April 02
On Tuesday, investors' focus will be on JOLTs data on job openings, which is taken into account by the US Federal Reserve when assessing the labor market. Job openings will fall from 8.86M to 8.79M in March. Also, on Tuesday, Germany will release its inflation report. The annualized rate is expected at a 2.5% level, slightly higher than February's 2.4%.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
- – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
- – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, April 03
OPEC+ countries will meet on Wednesday. In recent months, there have been disagreements within the cartel over further production quotas. If the disagreement intensifies, it will be negative for oil prices. Further production cuts will help prices to rise. Also, on Wednesday, the Eurozone will publish its inflation report. The core price level is expected to rise from 2.8% to 3.1% annually, which may hinder the ECB's plans to cut rates in June. Investors will also hear from Fed officials, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) PMI at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – OPEC Meeting (m/m) at 12:15 (GMT+3);
- – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
- – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 19:10 (GMT+3).
Thursday, April 04
Thursday will bring various statistics for many countries. The most important report will be the Swiss inflation data. At the last meeting, the SNB unexpectedly cut the rate by 0.25%, confidently expecting a further decline in consumer prices. Traders should also pay attention to the US and Canada trade balance data. It’s a bank holiday in China.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 01:00 (GMT+3);
- – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
- – German Services (m/m) PMI at 10:55 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Services (m/m) PMI at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3).
Friday, April 05
Friday's US jobs report will be in the spotlight amid investor confidence that a soft landing awaits the economy. According to the March forecast, the economy added 200к new jobs, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9%, and average hourly earnings growth is expected to have eased to 4.1% y/y. Such data may hurt the dollar, as the labor market dynamics have weakened since February. Along with the Nonfarm Payrolls report, Canadian labor market data will also be released. Economists expect employment to increase in March by 20k, which probably won't impact the likelihood of a rate cut in June. Unless there is a surprise, it’s a bank holiday in China.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).
- – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
by , 2024.04.01
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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