The week's main news will be the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting on monetary policy. While most central banks are starting to discuss an imminent easing move openly, the RBNZ remains hawkish on the possibility of further tightening. Australia, Japan, and the Eurozone will release inflation data. Inflationary pressures are expected to rise in Australia, while consumer prices in the EU area and Japan are forecasted to decline. Another important inflation report will be the US PCE report, the preferred inflation gauge for the US Fed. Also, several countries will release GDP data for the first month of 2024 this week.
Monday, February 26
No major economic news is expected on Monday, so that volatility will remain below average. However, the speech of ECB head Christine Lagarde may give some clues as to the ECB's plans.
Main events of the day:
- – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 18:00 (GMT+2).
Tuesday, February 27
The main event on Tuesday will be Japan's inflation report. Consumer prices are expected to fall below 2% year-on-year, which may put additional pressure on the yen, as it will delay the Bank of Japan's plans to normalize monetary policy. It is worth paying attention to the US Durable Goods Orders in the US session. This is a leading indicator of production - growth in orders for delivery signals that manufacturers will increase activity, which is positive for the economy and the US dollar.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan National Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
- – German GfK Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).
Wednesday, February 28
Asian traders will see strong volatility on Wednesday. First, Australia will release its inflation report. Consumer prices are expected to rise from 3.4% to 3.6% annually, which could support the Aussie dollar as higher inflation will delay the first rate cut for the RBA. Next, in New Zealand, the central bank will hold its first meeting of the year. The rate is expected to remain at 5.5%, but there is a strong possibility of further tightening as the RBNZ maintains its hawkish bias. The New Zealand dollar could gain credibility if the bank's stance remains hawkish. The US Crude Oil Reserves data, which significantly impacts oil prices, should also be in focus. The volatility of WTI and BRENT prices could rise sharply.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- – New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 03:00 (GMT+2);
- – New Zealand RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement at 03:00 (GMT+2);
- – New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference at 04:00 (GMT+2);
- – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
- – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+2);
- – US FOMC Member Mester Williams at 19:45 (GMT+2).
Thursday, February 29
A lot of news from around the world is expected on Thursday. The PCE Price Index report, the preferred inflation gauge for the US Fed, can be highlighted. A rise in the dollar index usually accompanies an increase in the PCE index. In Japan, the Tokyo Inflation Report will be published, considered a leading indicator of National inflation. A decline in consumer prices will put pressure on the Japanese yen. Also, on Thursday, Canada will report fourth-quarter GDP data. The Canadian economy contracted in the third quarter, but a rebound is likely in the last three months of 2023. Good GDP data could provide a much-needed boost to the Canadian dollar, which has failed to follow its peers in recovering against its US counterpart over the past 10 days.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
- – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
- – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
- – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
- – Switzerland GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
- – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2);
- – German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – Canada GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
- – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
- – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 17:50 (GMT+2);
- – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 20:15 (GMT+2).
Friday, March 1
On Friday, investors will focus on the PMI data in the services sector in many countries. This indicator is considered to be the most important for China. In recent weeks, the Chinese authorities have been stepping up efforts to support the fragile economic recovery, and the PMI data will show how successful these measures have been. Economists expect the official PMI data to show that the manufacturing sector is still in contractionary territory. In the Eurozone, preliminary inflation data will be released. Further easing of inflationary pressures is expected, which could be a negative for the Euro as it will increase the likelihood of a first-rate cut for the ECB for April.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
- – New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 02:05 (GMT+2);
- – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 03:10 (GMT+2);
- – China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
- –– China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
- – Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
- – Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
- – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone Flash Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
- – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 19:15 (GMT+2);
- – US FOMC Member Daly Speaks at 20:30 (GMT+2).
by , 2024.02.26
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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