The US Nonfarm payrolls report and US FOMC meeting minutes will be the main events of this week. The publication of the minutes may reinforce the view that moderate policy easing (3 steps of 0.25%) is needed in 2024. Friday's unemployment report will show the state of the US labor market. A strong labor market is positive for the US dollar, which has suffered in recent weeks on expectations that central banks will start cutting rates this year. Also, during the week, the European countries will publish new inflation data, increasing the volatility of the currency pairs with the euro.
Monday, January 01
On Monday, most financial centers worldwide have a bank holiday due to New Year's celebrations. No important events are expected.
Tuesday, January 02
On Tuesday, the Manufacturing PMI data for various countries will be published. No surprises are expected. It is a bank holiday in New Zealand, Switzerland, and Japan.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
- – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2);
- – Germany Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
- – German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2).
Wednesday, January 03
The US FOMC Meeting Minutes will be the main event of the day. No surprises are expected since all the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy plans have already been announced. But volatility will jump on almost all instruments. Traders should also be attentive to JOLT data. In recent months, this data has had a strong influence on market activity. A rise in job vacancies tends to have a positive effect on the dollar index. It is a bank holiday in Japan.
Main events of the day:
- – Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
- – German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
- – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- – US FOMC minutes at 21:00 (GMT+2).
Thursday, January 04
On Thursday, investors will focus on the US Initial Jobless Claims, an important indicator of the US labor market. Traders should also pay attention to the Crude Oil Reserves data, which significantly impacts oil prices.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
- – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- – China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2);
- – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:45 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- – German Consumer Price index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2);
- – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+2).
Friday, January 05
Friday will bring various statistics for many countries. The most important release for investors will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls. This data can trigger increased volatility in the market, and the Fed also considers this indicator to adjust monetary policy. Analysts don't expect the labor market picture to change much. According to forecasts, the Nonfarm payrolls will increase by 158 thousand people compared to 199 thousand in November, and the unemployment rate will slightly increase to 3.8%. Traders should also keep a close eye on Canada's Unemployment Rate and consumer prices in the Eurozone. Analysts predict a slight decrease in the EU, but there may be surprises, which will increase volatility on currency pairs with the euro.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
- – UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2);
- – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).
by , 2024.01.02
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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