This week will not be busy because of the Christmas and New Year holidays. As a rule, bankers and investors go on vacation at this time, so the volatility in the last week of the year is below average. But there are still events to watch out for. The investors' attention will be directed to Singapore inflation data, US labor market data, and Switzerland's KOF barometer. Also, it's worth paying attention to the economic data from Japan.
Monday, December 25
It's a bank holiday in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, and most European countries, because of Christmas. Only the Asian (China, Japan) markets will work. But no important events are expected, so volatility will be very low. It is better not to trade on such a day.
Tuesday, December 26
On Tuesday, most financial exchanges will also not be open due to the holidays. The Singapore Inflation Rate will be the most influential release on Tuesday. Analysts predict that the inflation rate will rise from 4.3% to 4.7% year-on-year, with the core rate jumping from 3.1% to 3.3% y/y. This could give confidence to the Singapore dollar. It's a bank holiday in Canada, Germany, Norway, Switzerland, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, and the United Kingdom.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
- – Singapore Inflation Rate (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2).
Wednesday, December 27
The main event on Wednesday will be the US Richmond Manufacturing Index. This index rates the relative level of business conditions, including shipments, new orders, and employment. A level above zero on the index indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions. A deterioration of minus 5 to minus 7 is expected.
Main events of the day:
- – US Richmond Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).
Thursday, December 28
The US Labor Department will update the weekly statistics on initial jobless claims on Thursday. This is an important indicator that the Federal Reserve considers adjusting monetary policy. So traders should keep a close eye on this data. Applications are expected to rise from 205k to 211k, which would indicate worsening labor market conditions. The US Crude Oil Inventories should also be the focus of traders. The situation on the oil market remains tense, as oil pricing is now affected by many factors: Angola's withdrawal from OPEC+, Houthi attacks on tankers in the Red Sea, production cuts by OPEC+ countries, rising inventories, and increased demand for fuel due to the holidays.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
- – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Crude Oil Inventories (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+2).
Friday, December 29
The most essential Friday's release for investors will be the KOF Economic Barometer in Switzerland. It is a composite indicator that provides a reliable indication of the GDP growth direction of the Swiss economy. Analysts forecast a slight increase in the figures. The US session will also see news on the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The reading is expected to drop sharply from 55.8 to 50.5. A lower reading should be negative/bearish for the USD.
Main events of the day:
- – Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2).
by , 2023.12.25
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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