This holiday week's main event will be the November minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting. Recent signs of falling inflation have fueled hopes that the US central bank has ended its tightening cycle, and investors will be studying the minutes for clues as to where policymakers are leaning at future meetings. Traders' interest will also be piqued by the UK's autumn budget and Canada's Consumer Price Index. Japan will present its October consumer price index, and the Bank of Sweden will hold monetary policy meetings. At the end of the week, on Sunday, there will be a meeting of OPEC+ countries, where new production norms will be presented, so leaving positions before the weekend will be a very risky decision.
Monday, November 20
China will update its key lending rates on Monday. No surprises are expected, but there is a slight possibility of a rate cut to stimulate economic growth as well as to stoke inflation, which has moved into deflation territory. Some analysts believe that an injection of CNY 1.45 trillion (~$200 billion) by the People's Bank of China is equivalent to a 25 bps cut in reserve requirements.
Main events of the day:
- – China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 03:15 (GMT+2);
- – German Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK BoE Gov Andrew Bailey’s Speech at 20:45 (GMT+2);
- – New Zealand Trade Balance at 23:45 (GMT+2).
Tuesday, November 21
On Tuesday, Canada's inflation data will be released. Analysts are predicting further easing of inflationary pressures. The Bank of Canada attaches great importance to the core trimmed and median core indicators and will express concern about the lack of progress. On the other hand, a drop in the CPI may cause a sell-off in the Canadian currency. Also, on Tuesday, the FOMC minutes from the November 1 meeting will be released. This time, the minutes are published on Tuesday due to the US Thanksgiving Day on Thursday. Most likely, the minutes will not show anything new but will only strengthen investors' confidence that the US Federal Reserve will not raise rates again.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia RBA Bullock Speech at 01:00 (GMT+2);
- – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- – Switzerland Trade Balance at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – Hong Kong Inflation Rate at 10:30 (GMT+2);
- – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+2);
- – US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+2).
Wednesday, November 22
On Wednesday, a bunch of data will be released in various countries. Traders may be interested in the UK budget, which may give some confidence to the British pound. The highlights will be figures on US Durable Goods Orders and Singapore's GDP for the quarter. There will also be two important reports on crude oil and natural gas reserves.
Main events of the day:
- – Singapore GDP (q/q) at 02:00 (GMT+2);
- – Australia RBA Bullock Speech at 10:35 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone ECB Financial Stability Review at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Monetary Policy Report Hearings at 12:15 (GMT+2);
- – UK Autumn Statement at 14:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
- – Canada BOC Gov Macklem Speaks at 18:45 (GMT+2);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 19:00 (GMT+2).
Thursday, November 23
The Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts will be the center of attention on Thursday. Recent comments from ECB officials have shown a strong divergence of opinion on the next steps, so this report will give a more complete picture of where the majority is looking. Also worth watching on Thursday is the PMI data for the manufacturing and services sectors. These are indicators that help gauge the health of the economy, especially at a time of high interest rates. It would not be unreasonable to watch the actions of the Swedish Central Bank, which may raise interest rates again. It’s a bank holiday in Japan (Labor Thanksgiving Day) and in the United States (Thanksgiving Day).
Main events of the day:
- – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
- – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
- – Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
- – Germany Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
- – Germany Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
- – Sweden Riksbank Rate Decision (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+2);
- – New Zealand Retail Sales (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2).
Friday, November 24
On Friday, investors' focus will be on Japan's inflation data. Tokyo Consumer Price Index, which was presented on October 27, showed an increase in inflation. Given that the Tokyo CPI is a leading indicator, it is expected that the overall inflation rate will also show an increase in prices. Rising inflationary pressures are positive for the yen, but as Bank of Japan Governor Ueda places more importance on wages, the yen's reaction may be limited. Also worth watching on Friday are the final German GDP data for the last quarter, as well as ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech at an event in Frankfurt.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan National Core CPI at 01:30 (GMT+2);
- – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- – German GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- – Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
- – US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2).
by , 2023.11.20
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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