This week, the main focus of investors will be on inflation data in the leading countries — the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Inflationary pressures are expected to ease in the US and the UK, while in the Eurozone, inflation may surprise in terms of growth. Also, the focus of traders will be data on China. The Chinese economy is still struggling to recover from the pandemic, and the next weak data may provoke new rumors about stimulus. Also, this week, many Central Bank speeches are expected, which may give some clues ahead of the last bank meetings of the year.
Monday, November 13
Monday will be a fairly quiet day. No major economic events are expected in the European and American sessions. Traders' interest may be only in the data on producer inflation in Japan, which is a precursor to consumer inflation. It’s a bank holiday in Canada.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2).
Tuesday, November 14
A lot of economic data is expected on Tuesday. The main event will be US inflation data. It is expected that consumer inflation will continue to decline, which will increase the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates any further. Traders should also pay attention to the UK labor market data, which are taken into account by the Bank of England in the formation of monetary policy. In recent months, the data on the UK labor market has begun to deteriorate, and this trend may continue, which will have a negative impact on the British currency. The Eurozone GDP data may not cause much volatility, but it will reflect the economic situation in the EU during the period of high interest rates.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- – Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
- – Switzerland Chairman Jordan Speaks at 09:45 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+2);
- – US FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks at 19:45 (GMT+2).
Wednesday, November 15
On Wednesday, the attention of investors will be directed to the inflation data in the United Kingdom. Inflationary pressures are expected to fall sharply from 6.7% to 4.7% in annualized terms. This will increase the likelihood that the Bank of England will become more dovish and refuse to raise rates further. US factory inflation data should also be on the watch list as this data is a harbinger of consumer prices going forward. Also, on Wednesday, a lot of macro data on China is expected. Given the deflationary scenario, weak data will increase the likelihood that the PBoC will move to cut key rates to stimulate the economy, which is positive for Chinese indices.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
- – Australia Wage Price Index (q/q) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- – China Industrial Production (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
- – China Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
- – China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 16:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).
Thursday, November 16
Thursday will be a busy day, but it is difficult to highlight any of the events. Traders should analyze the data on the labor market in Australia. Analysts predict that the unemployment rate will rise. Given the rate hike from the RBA at the last meeting, this will increase the probability that the RBA rate is already at its maximum. Traders should also pay attention to the weekly US labor market data. A rise in unemployment claims could have a strong negative impact on the US dollar. A speech by ECB chief Christine Lagarde may also pique investors' interest.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
- – Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 13:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2);
- – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 16:25 (GMT+2);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
- – US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 17:35 (GMT+2);
- – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+2);
- – New Zealand Producer Price Index (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2).
Friday, November 17
On Friday, the Eurozone will release its final inflation data. No changes are expected, but any surprise in terms of growth, especially in core inflation, may give support to the European currency as the ECB may increase rates further. Traders should also pay attention to the UK retail sales data. The growth of the figures may give temporary support to the British currency.
Main events of the day:
- – UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – Switzerland Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 09:30 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- – Canada Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US FOMC Member Daly Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+2).
by , 2023.11.13
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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