This week is full of important economic events. The central banks of Europe and Canada will hold monetary policy and interest rate meetings. Australia and Singapore will release new inflation data. Market watchers will also get an update on the state of the US economy, including third-quarter GDP data and the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE index. All of this will take place against the backdrop of the ongoing reporting season, where Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and Apple (AAPL) will be reporting this week.
Monday, October 23
Weak volatility is forecasted on Monday as no important economic events are expected in the European and American sessions. The only important news will take place in Asia, and it is the Singapore inflation data, which will have an impact on the SGD-Singapore dollar pair and SG20 index.
Main events of the day:
- – Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, October 24
Tuesday will see a lot of statistics on business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors for a number of countries. But the main event on Tuesday will be the UK labor market data, which will be taken into account by the Bank of England when planning monetary policy next month. The British labor market has lost jobs in recent months, and a continuation of this trend could hit the Pound as it increases the risk of recession.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 01:00 (GMT+3);
- – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 01:00 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- – Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speaks at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- – US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, October 25
On Wednesday, investors will focus on the Interest Rate Decision from the Bank of Canada (BoC). Markets give only a 15% probability of a rate hike. Inflation continues to fall, with a slowdown in business activity. This puts less pressure on the central bank. Investors should also not miss CPI data in Australia, where inflation is expected to rise slightly from 5.2% to 5.4% year-over-year. This could provide temporary upward momentum for the Aussie dollar. At the end of the trading day, investors should not miss US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks, which may give some clues as to the US Fed's future policy.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
- – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada BoC Press Conference at 18:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3);
Thursday, October 26
The European Central Bank meeting will be the key event on Thursday. It is expected that the ECB will take a pause and keep the rate at 4.5%. Traders will also pay special attention to the US GDP data for the third quarter, which is expected to grow by 4.3% y/y, double the 2.1% in the previous quarter. Against the backdrop of a robust US labor market, GDP growth may increase the likelihood of another rate hike, which could be reflected in a stronger dollar.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speaks at 01:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Friday, October 27
On Friday, traders should keep an eye on the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index. The core index, which excludes volatile food and fuel costs, is forecast to increase by 3.7% on a year-over-year basis. The growth of this indicator will be favorable for the dollar, as a stable level of PCE indicates stable inflation, which means that the US Federal Reserve may go for further tightening. In the Asian session, traders should pay attention to the Tokyo Inflation Rate data, which is a leading indicator of inflation across the country.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- – Australia Producer Price Index at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
by , 2023.10.23
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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