Geopolitical tensions will remain at the forefront this week. Any hints of further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East will have a direct impact on the US dollar, gold, and oil prices. Also, the focus for investors will be on the consumer price index in the major economies (Eurozone, United Kingdom, Canada, New Zealand, and Japan). There will also be plenty of economic statistics on China, with Q3 GDP data worth a special look. Several US Federal Reserve officials will speak this week. Investors should not forget about the 3rd quarter US earnings season. Companies due to report earnings next week include Tesla, Netflix, and Johnson & Johnson.
Monday, October 16
On Monday, traders will mainly focus on the Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey. This report can give hints about the next steps of the Bank of Canada as well as see the bank's economic forecasts.
Main events of the day:
- – Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Harker Speaks (m/m) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, October 17
On Tuesday, the main event of the day will be the inflation data in New Zealand and Canada. New Zealand publishes these data once a quarter, not once a month like other countries. Analysts expect inflation to fall from 6% to 5.9% on a yearly basis. But in quarterly terms, inflation is expected to rise sharply. Volatility in pairs with the New Zealand dollar will be higher. Canada expects inflation to remain at 4% y/y. The attention of traders should also be focused on the Australia RBA Meeting Minutes. Also, traders shouldn’t miss the UK labor market data, which will be scrutinized by the Bank of England to plan the future trajectory of interest rates. A strong labor market will increase the likelihood of another rate hike this year.
Main events of the day:
- – New Zealand Consumer Price Index at 00:45 (GMT+3);
- – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (m/m) at 16:20 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, October 18
On Wednesday, all investors' attention will be focused on the inflation data in the UK and the Eurozone. Volatility in pairs with the GBP and EUR will be higher. Analysts predict that UK inflation will show a 0.2% y/y decline, while Eurozone inflation is expected to be unchanged. Market watchers will also be watching a flurry of economic data from China for signs of how the world's second-largest economy is recovering. This data will have a strong impact on Asian indices and the Australian dollar. Economists expect China's gross domestic product data to point to modest growth of 4.4% year-on-year, still below Beijing's target of around 5% per year. At the end of the day, a number of speeches by FOMC officials are expected, which may cause an increase in volatility in US indices.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speaks at 01:35 (GMT+3);
- – China GDP (q/q) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks (m/m) at 19:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (m/m) at 20:00 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Harker Speaks (m/m) at 22:15 (GMT+3).
Thursday, October 19
Thursday will be a calmer day. Market watchers will be keeping a close eye on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments when he speaks at the Economic Club of New York. Traders should also analyze data on the Australian labor market. Strong data will increase the probability of another rate hike by the RBA, which in turn may give a boost to the Aussie dollar.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks (m/m) at 23:00 (GMT+3).
Friday, October 20
The main event to watch on Friday is the Japan National Consumer Price Index. Economists forecast inflation to fall from 3.1% to 2.7% on an annualized basis. This will be extremely negative for the JPY, as it will put the Bank of Japan further away from the beginning of the process of normalization of monetary policy. Also, on Friday, it is worth paying attention to the inflation data in Hong Kong and retail sales data in the UK and Canada.
Main events of the day:
- – New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 00:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan National Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- – China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 04:15 (GMT+3);
- – UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – Hong Kong Inflation Rate (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Harker Speaks (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks (m/m) at 19:15 (GMT+3).
by , 2023.10.16
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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