It will be an important week for the US Dollar, Euro, British Pound, and Australian Dollar as well. The main event of the week will be the US inflation data on Wednesday. But if the CPI report is neutral overall, investors' attention will quickly shift to the PPI and US retail sales data on Thursday. On Tuesday, the UK labor market data will be released, and on Wednesday, the focus will be on the UK GDP estimate for July, as well as industrial production and trade figures. On Thursday, the ECB will make its interest rate decision. The consensus among economists and money markets is that the ECB will keep the deposit rate unchanged. The economic week will end with important data from China.
Monday, September 11
Not much news is expected on Monday. The main event that traders should pay attention to is the inflation data in Norway. This data will have a strong impact on the NOK currency. Do not forget that the Norwegian central bank (Norges) is still on the way to tighten monetary policy.
Main events of the day:
- The main event on Monday will be the Swiss GDP data.
- – Norway Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, September 12
On Tuesday, traders should pay attention to the UK labor market data. These reports will influence the Bank of England's interest rate decision this month. Last week, the Governor of the Bank of England unexpectedly shifted focus from hawkish to dovish, so strong labor market data may bring back confidence in the British currency. Investors should also evaluate the ZEW report on the economic health of Germany, which is already in a technical recession.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, September 13
The main event on Wednesday will be the US consumer inflation data. Experts see signs of growing inflationary pressure and expect the figures to rise. This will be a strengthening factor for the US dollar. Also, on Wednesday, it is worth not to miss the UK GDP data, which is expected to show a contraction over the last month. Investors should also be focused on the US Crude Oil Reserves, which have a significant impact on oil prices.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Thursday, September 14
The European Central Bank will hold a monetary policy meeting on Thursday. The ECB is expected to keep the interest rate at the current level, but the probability of a rate hike is about 1 in 3, so there could be surprises in the form of a 0.25% rate hike. Traders should also be focused on the release of US factory inflation data, which is considered to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation next month. And US retail sales data should never be missed. Unexpectedly strong consumer spending in the third quarter may be the single biggest factor that could prompt the Fed to hit the rate hike button in September or November. Australian labor market data should also be on the trader's list after stronger-than-expected second-quarter GDP growth cast doubt on the RBA's excessive caution on the economy.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3);
- – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Friday, September 15
On Friday, traders may turn their attention to China's monthly data on industrial production, retail sales, and the labor market. While growth in August is expected to remain sluggish by Chinese standards, forecasts point to some improvement. If this turns out to be the case, risk appetite is likely to be supported, helping Asian indices and the Australian dollar to rise.
Main events of the day:
- – China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
- – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
by , 2023.09.11
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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