Despite Monday being a bank holiday in the United States and Canada, this economic week is quite busy. Investors will primarily be watching the central bank meetings in Australia and Canada. Both central banks are expected to leave rates unchanged, but there may be surprises. Secondly, investors will have the opportunity to hear several Fed representatives speak about the future policy of the US central bank. Thirdly, China's trade balance data will show whether China was able to recover from the previous balance contraction. Analysts put a disappointing forecast. The data on business activity in the service sector will give an indication of whether traders should expect service inflation to intensify further.
Monday, September 04
It's a bank holiday in the United States and Canada on Monday. The day will be low-volatility. The main event on Monday will be the Swiss GDP data.
Main events of the day:
- The main event on Monday will be the Swiss GDP data.
- – Switzerland GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:30 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, September 05
The Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision will become the main event on Tuesday. Analysts believe the RBA will hold interest rates at the same level. Traders expect this to be the peak after inflation unexpectedly fell to an annualized rate of 4.9% in July, the lowest since last December. But, volatility in currency pairs with the Australian dollar may increase. Traders should also closely follow the data on business activity in the service sector in European countries.
Main events of the day:
- – China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
- – Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
- – Australia RBA Rate Statement (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
- – German Service PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Service PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Service PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, September 06
The main event on Wednesday will be the Interest Rate Decision from the Bank of Canada. Experts believe the Bank of Canada will leave the interest rate at 5%. Investors will also focus on quarter GDP data in Australia. GDP growth of 0.3% is expected. Investors should also pay attention to the UK monetary policy report hearings before the Treasury Committee. These hearings may provide more insight into the MPC's stance on interest rates.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia GDP (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – UK Monetary Policy Report Hearings at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US ISM Service PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – Canada BoC Rate Statement (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
Thursday, September 07
Various statistics for many countries are expected on Tuesday. The first thing to pay attention to is China's trade balance data. Exports and imports are forecast to contract again in August, which will increase the likelihood of more intensive stimulus from Chinese officials. Secondly, investors will have an opportunity to hear several Fed officials speak, which may give clues as to the mood of Fed policymakers before the September Fed meeting. Also, on Thursday, reports on oil and natural gas inventories will be published, which will have a significant impact on the pricing of these instruments.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
- – Australia RBA Governor Lowe Speaks at 06:10 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
- – German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone GDP (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Harker Speaks (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+3);
- – Canada BOC Gov Macklem Speaks at 20:55 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks (m/m) at 22:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (m/m) at 23:55 (GMT+3).
Friday, September 08
The most important Friday's release for investors will be the Canadian labor market data. Conditions are expected to improve, but there could be surprises like it was last month. Traders should also pay attention to Japan's GDP data. The economy is expected to grow by 1.4% in quarterly terms.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan GDP (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Barr Speaks (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+3).
by , 2023.09.04
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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