The US Nonfarm Payrolls report will become the week's main event as it is the most important data for the Fed's monetary policy decision. Economists believe the labor market will add 169,000 jobs in August after 187,000 in July. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.5%, while average hourly earnings growth is also forecast to remain unchanged at 4.4% y/y in August. The data on the preliminary rate of inflation in the Eurozone should also be on the trader's list since the ECB meeting is two weeks away. Also, investors should not miss the Manufacturing PMI data in various countries. Falling below 50 is a serious slowdown in the sector, which usually leads to a recession.
Monday, August 28
Usually, Monday is an ordinary trading day with low volatility, but after the Jackson Hole symposium, the week may start very actively. Traders will be interested in data on retail sales in Australia. If retail sales don't recover after falling for two consecutive quarters, it could lead to a downgrade in Australia's GDP rating for the third quarter. It is a bank holiday in the United Kingdom on Monday.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, August 29
On Tuesday, investors should first pay attention to the speech of the new head of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Michele Bullock. Secondly, the US session will see the release of important data on consumer confidence, as well as data on job openings, which will have an impact on the overall labor market indicator.
Main events of the day:
- – German GfK German Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – Australia RBA Gov-Designate Bullock Speaks at 10:40 (GMT+3);
- – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, August 30
On Wednesday, important inflation reports from Australia and Germany will be released. In both cases, a slight decline in annual inflation is expected. Traders should also pay attention to the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and US GDP data for the last month. GDP growth, along with a strong labor market, may increase the probability of another rate hike by the US Fed, which will be favorable for the USD index and not favorable for risk assets.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
- – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
- – US GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Thursday, August 31
Thursday will see the release of 2 important inflation reports. In the Eurozone, core CPI is expected to decline from 5.5% to 5.3% y/y. This will increase the likelihood of a pause from the ECB at the September meeting. In the United States, the PCE price report will be published, which is on the US Fed's list of monitored inflation indicators and is considered a more important report than CPI. There could be surprises in terms of the sustainability of inflation. Traders should also pay attention to the Natural Gas Storage data, which has a significant impact on natural gas prices. Gas storages are now fuller than usual, so the increase in indicators may have a negative impact on natural gas prices.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
- – German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3);
- – US PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Friday, September 01
The US Nonfarm Payrolls data will become the most important Friday release for investors, so the volatility can be increased. This indicator is also taken into account by the Fed to adjust monetary policy. Labor market indicators are expected to remain at about the same level. Also, on Friday, a slew of Manufacturing PMI data from key economies will be released. It is an important economic indicator that shows the state of the sector. As a rule, a recession starts when this indicator falls below the 50 mark. Also, investors should not miss the Swiss inflation data, as well as the Canadian GDP data.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
- – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
- – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
by , 2023.08.28
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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