This week, investors' attention will focus on the FOMC minutes of the July meeting, which will give clues as to how the US Fed will behave at its September meeting. The UK will publish data on inflation, where consumer price pressures are expected to decline slightly. In Europe, an essential second-quarter GDP report and inflation data will be released. The central banks of New Zealand and Norway hold monetary policy meetings, where rates are expected to remain unchanged. Traders should also not miss the consumer price index data in Japan and Canada.
Monday, August 14
No major economic events are expected on Monday. The day will be relatively calm in terms of volatility.
Tuesday, August 15
On Tuesday, the main event of the day will be the inflation data in Canada. Analysts expect inflationary pressures to increase slightly due to higher oil prices in recent weeks. For the Canadian dollar, this may become a growth factor. Investors should also be attentive to the UK labor market data. The Bank of England needs to see a strong labor market to tighten policy further to fight inflation, and if the data is weak, it will be negative for the GBP. Also, traders should not miss the data from China, which plays an important role in the pricing of Asian indices. And the US retail sales data will provide insight into the state of consumer spending at a time of high-interest rates. It's a bank holiday in France, Italy and India.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan GDP (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – Australia Wage Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
- – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
- – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC member Kashkari Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, August 16
On Wednesday, all investors will focus on the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Economic data over the past weeks have bolstered investor hopes that the US central bank can make a soft landing of the economy and won't raise interest rates again. But if the report is more hawkish, investor sentiment may change. Also, on Wednesday, the UK will publish inflation data, where it is expected to see a slight decline in price pressure. In New Zealand, the Central Bank will hold monetary policy sessions. The RBNZ is expected to leave the rate unchanged as the economy is already in contractionary territory, and the labor market has started to cool down. Eurozone GDP data will provide insights into the health of EU countries during a period of high-interest rates.
Main events of the day:
- – New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – New Zealand RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference at 06:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3).
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 21:00 (GMT+3).
Thursday, August 17
On Thursday, The Norwegian Central Bank will hold a monetary policy meeting. Analysts are divided on whether Norges Bank will raise the rate or leave it unchanged. But volatility with currency pairs with NOK will be increased. It is also worth keeping a close eye on the labor market data in Australia. Robust data may bolster confidence that the RBA could raise the interest rate one more time.
Main events of the day:
- – New Zealand Producer Price Index (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – Norwegian Norges Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Friday, August 18
The main event to watch on Friday is the Japan National Consumer Price Index. Analysts forecast a 0.2% year-on-year decline in inflation, which would be negative for the JPY as the BoJ wants to see inflation steadily growing to move away from soft monetary policy. Also, investors should not miss the Eurozone inflation data. Particular attention should be paid to core inflation data. If core inflation shows no signs of slowing down, it will increase the likelihood that the ECB will raise rates at its September meeting. And July's UK retail sales data could provide evidence of a looming recession in the country.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan National Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- – UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3).
by , 2023.08.14
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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