Inflation data will continue to dominate the economic agenda this week. In Canada, the UK, and New Zealand, inflation is expected to decline, while inflationary pressures are expected to intensify in the Eurozone and Japan. Traders should also keep a close eye on China's economic data. With deflationary forces intensifying, weak economic data could lead to massive stimulus. Several big companies are due to report this week such as BAC, MS, LMT, SCHW, TSLA, NFLX, IBM, GS, USB, TSM, and JNJ. Volatility on stock indices will increase as the reporting period moves towards the middle.
Monday, July 17
On Monday, the main focus of investors will be on China's economic data. GDP is expected to show 7.3% annualized growth, but other data is expected to be weak. It's worth keeping in mind that this data has a significant impact on Asian indices. It's a bank holiday in Japan.
Main events of the day:
- – China GDP (q/q) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 11:15 (GMT+3);
- – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).
- – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3).
- – New Zealand Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
- – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
- – Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 04:15 (GMT+3);
- – Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
- – Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- – UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, July 18
The Reserve Bank of Australia will update its monetary policy statement. Australia is on its way to tightening monetary policy amid high inflation, so it is important to keep an eye on this data. Traders' attention should also be focused on the Canada Consumer Price Index. Analysts expect that in annual terms, inflation in Canada will continue to decrease, which, considering the pause from the Bank of Canada, could be a negative factor for the Canadian currency. Investors will also get an update on US retail sales. This indicator shows how consumers spend money during a high-interest rate period.
Main events of the day:
Wednesday, July 19
The main event on Wednesday will be the inflation data in the United Kingdom, Eurozone, and New Zealand. Analysts predict that the inflation in New Zealand will decrease from 6.7% to 5.9% y/y, in the UK is expected to see a slight decrease from 8.7% to 8.2% y/y, while in the Eurozone, analyst predicts a slight rise in CPI from 5.3% to 5.4% y/y. As a rule, lower inflation is accompanied by the weakness of the national currency and vice versa. It is also worth remembering that New Zealand inflation data is published quarterly, which increases its importance.
Main events of the day:
Thursday, July 20
Thursday will be a relatively quiet day. Traders should be interested in the Bank of China's interest rate decision. Inflation in China has reached negative values (deflation), so the PBoC may consider lowering the main rate and increasing economic stimulus. Investors should also pay attention to the trade balance data for Japan, Switzerland, and the Eurozone.
Main events of the day:
Friday, July 21
The most important Friday release for investors will be the inflation rate data in Japan. Analysts expect a slight increase in consumer inflation. The volatility on the currency pairs with the Japanese yen will increase because as inflation rises, the Bank of Japan will be forced to shift toward monetary policy normalization. Investors should also pay attention to the retail sales data in Canada and the United Kingdom.
Main events of the day:
by , 2023.07.21
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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