Inflationary pressures are easing in New Zealand. The RBA is still considering raising rates

As of Monday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.93% and rose to a 3-week-high yesterday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.06%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.20% yesterday. The stock market rose on Monday due to diplomatic efforts to contain the conflict between Israel and Hamas, easing geopolitical concerns and improving market sentiment. President Biden is considering a personal visit to Israel, while German Chancellor Scholz is expected to arrive in Israel on Tuesday. In addition, King Abdullah II of Jordan is in Italy, where he is expected to meet with Italian Prime Minister Meloni to discuss the crisis. Meanwhile, the US security adviser Sullivan said the US has warned Iran in back-channel talks about the risk of an escalation of war. Markets are also expecting positive Q3 quarterly earnings results.

Shares of Microsoft (MSFT) closed by 1.5% higher after Piper Sandler named it the most promising large-cap stock to end the year with a $400 price target.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Monday. Germany's DAX (DE40) rose by 0.34%, France's CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.27% yesterday, Spain's IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.59%, and the UK's FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.41%.

Polls showed Poland's pro-EU opposition party won a majority in parliamentary elections on Sunday, easing political risks in the Eurozone. ECB governing council spokesman De Kos said yesterday that a sharp rise in global borrowing costs means ECB policymakers have probably done enough to curb inflation. That's a positive for European indices.

Crude oil prices fell on Monday as diplomatic efforts to contain the war between Israel and Hamas eased fears that the conflict would widen and jeopardize crude supplies in the Middle East. Oil prices also fell on reports that the US will ease sanctions against Venezuela in exchange for its government improving election conditions.

Asian markets were predominantly down yesterday. Japan's Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 2.03%, China's FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 1.02%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng (HK50) was down by 0.97% on Monday, and Australia's ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.35%.

The New Zealand dollar fell sharply after data showed that inflation rose less than expected in the third quarter. Consumer prices were 5.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, down from 6.0% in the second quarter. Analysts lowered their expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank. Westpac and ANZ moved their expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike from November to February.

The Singapore dollar's losses were somewhat limited by data that key indicators of the island nation's non-resource exports beat expectations in September.

The Australian dollar gained 0.3% as minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia' showed that policymakers are still considering further rate hikes amid the recent resilience in inflation.

The Chinese yuan is near 11-month lows. Markets are awaiting key third-quarter gross domestic product data due on Wednesday. The data is expected to show a sustained slowdown in economic growth as the country's manufacturing and service sectors struggle with slowing overseas demand. The debt crisis in the real estate market is also expected to further dampen economic growth, although a series of monetary stimulus measures implemented last quarter likely helped offset the larger decline in growth.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,373.63 +45.85 (+1.06%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,984.54 +314.25 (+0.93%)

DAX (DE40)  15,237.99 +51.33 (+0.34%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,630.63 +31.03 (+0.41%)

USD Index  106.21 -0.44 (-0.41%)

News feed for 2023.10.17:
  • – New Zealand Consumer Price Index at 00:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (m/m) at 16:20 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2023.10.17

We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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