Geopolitical Events Are in the Spotlight. We Expect High Trading Activity and Volatility

The dollar index (#DX) is consolidating near local lows before important events. Today, the news feed will be full of events. Investors expect the US inflation report for March, as well as the publication of the FOMC minutes. Earlier, the US Federal Reserve announced that it planned to keep interest rates unchanged until the end of this year. At the same time, the US President Donald Trump continues to criticize the actions of the regulator. He believes that the Central Bank has to ease interest rates, as well as to stop the decrease in the volume of assets on the balance sheet.

Also, investors will be focused on the ECB interest rate decision. Financial market participants expect the regulator to leave the key marks of monetary policy unchanged. Earlier, ECB President, Mario Draghi, said that the regulator was ready to consider the issue of introducing additional expansionary measures in September 2019. We recommend paying attention to the comments by the Central Bank representatives.

Today, a summit of EU member countries will also take place, at which the Brexit issue will be decided. The request by the British Prime Minister Theresa May to extend the deadline for the country's exit from the block will be considered at the summit. Theresa May requests to extend the term of Article 50 of the EU Treaty until June 30, 2019. European Council President Donald Tusk, in turn, offered EU countries to consider a "flexible" extension of the Brexit deadline. He urges to do everything possible to avoid no-deal Brexit. We also recommend paying attention to important economic releases from the UK.

The demand for safe assets is still at a fairly high level amid new tension in trade between the US and Europe, as well as a slowdown in global economic growth. The United States announced the possibility of introduction of additional tariffs on European goods $11 billion worth. The International Monetary Fund has worsened its forecasts for the global economy in 2019 from 3.5% to 3.3%, which is the slowest growth since 2016.

The "black gold" prices are consolidating near annual highs. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the mark of $64.30 per barrel. At 17:30 (GMT+3:00), a report on crude oil inventories will be published in the US.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, the bearish sentiment was observed in the US stock market: #SPY (-0.51%), #DIA (-0.65%), #QQQ (-0.35%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield fell slightly. Currently, the indicator is at the level of 2.49-2.50%.

The news feed for 2019.04.10:

- UK GDP at 11:30 (GMT+3:00);
- Manufacturing production in the UK at 11:30 (GMT+3:00);
- ECB interest rate decision at 14:45 (GMT+3:00);
- Inflation report in the US at 15:30 (GMT+3:00);
- FOMC meeting minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3:00).

by JustForex, 2019.04.10

We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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