During the last sessions, trading on currency majors is active enough. At the same time, a unidirectional trend is not observed. The dollar index (#DX) is in a sideways trend (97.90-98.30). Investors expect additional drivers. Trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing are still a key event in the financial markets. The US and China signed the interim trade agreement last week. US Secretary of the Treasury, Steven Mnuchin, said that Washington would not raise tariffs from 25% to 30% on Chinese exports $250 billion worth. Beijing, in turn, promised to increase purchases of US agricultural products. The interim agreement prepares the ground for more serious negotiations between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, which will be held at the APEC summit in Chile in mid-November.
This week, some important statistics from the US will be published that will affect the alignment of forces on currency majors in the short term. These reports may also affect the Fed's views on further monetary policy.
We recommend paying attention to the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and a number of indicators on the real estate market, which will be published on Thursday, October 17 (15:30 GMT+3:00). This index determines the economic well-being of the manufacturing sector of the Philadelphia Federal District and has a rather strong influence on the dynamics of the US currency. Experts expect that in October the figure will slow down from 12.0 to 8.0. We recommend taking into account the difference between the actual and the forecasted values.
Let’s consider the current technical pattern on the EUR/USD currency pair
- Support levels: 1.10000, 1.09400, 1.08850
- Resistance levels: 1.10600, 1.11100, 1.11600
- - 50 MA has crossed 100 MA;
- - The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but below the signal line.
At the moment, the EUR/USD currency pair is consolidating. The technical pattern is ambiguous. The trading instrument is testing the key support and resistance levels: 1.10000 and 1.10600, respectively. Indicators do not send accurate signals:
We recommend opening positions from the key levels.
If the US publishes weak economic releases, we expect further recovery of the EUR/USD quotes. The immediate goal for profit-taking is 1.11100. The movement is tending to 1.11600-1.12200.
An alternative could be a decrease in the EUR/USD currency pair to 1.09500-1.09000.
Confirmations and market entry points should be looked for on lower timeframes. When tracking positions, we recommend using a trailing stop.
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