The USD index is showing a positive trend. Since the beginning of the month, the USD strengthened against the basket of world currencies by more than 0.75%. The indicator is currently testing the annual maximums. The demand for USD remains due to the progress in the Washington/Beijing negotiations and the growth of the US Treasury bonds’ yield.
The British pound began to descend after a long rally since the middle of February. The investors started to fix positions due to ambiguousness around Brexit. This week the representatives of the Labour party claimed that they will not support Theresa May`s agreement with the EU and that the negotiations with Brussel have had «no sign of a breakthrough.» The GBP/USD quotes are close to the weekly minimums, due to the talks hitting a dead end. According to Reuters, the experts forecast that GBP can lose up to 9% of its current value against the USD and reach the $1.20 mark should the Brexit conclude without said agreement.
The financial market participants are waiting for the US Labour Market report, which is set to be published on March 8 at 15:30 (GMT+2:00). This report should affect the dynamic and balance of power on the major currency pairs. The latest reports from the US have been rather positive, i.e., in February the Customer Trust Index reached 131.4 against the 124.7 expectations. The non-industrial PMI increased from 56.7 to 59.7. According to the ADP, the number of employees in the non-agricultural industry was 183000 against the forecasted 189000.
The experts expect that in February the number of non-agricultural employees in the US will lower from 304K to 180K. The unemployment level should also lower from 4% to 3.9%. The growth of the average wage should reach 0.3%. You should keep an eye on the difference between the forecasted and real data.
Current Technical Picture of GBP/USD
GBP/USD is moving in a flat. The key support and resistance levels are 1.31000 and 1.31850. The indicators do not provide precise signals:
You should open positions from the key levels.
If the US labour market report is positive, expect the quotes to fall toward the round 1.30000.
Alternatively, the quotes can fix above 1.31850, and you should consider buying GBP/USD. The price will move toward 1.32500-1.33000.
The confirmations and market entry points will be located on smaller timeframes. Use trailing-stop when creating positions.
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.당좌계정