Economic Reports from the US Will Determine the Fate of the Dollar in the Short Term

During the last sessions, trading on major currency pairs is quite active. At the same time, a unidirectional trend is not observed. The dollar index (#DX) is in a sideways trend. Since the beginning of this month, a key range of 89.40-90.20 has been formed. Concerns about the beginning of the trading war have weakened, as a result, the American currency has stabilized. At the moment, investors expect additional drivers.

USD
Source: finviz.com

This week a number of important economic reports from the US, which will influence the alignment of forces on tha majors in the short term, will be published. This statistic may also affect the Fed's views on further monetary policy.

We recommend you to pay attention to the index of production activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, which will be published on Thursday (at 14:30 GMT+2:00). This index determines the economic well-being of the manufacturing sector of the Federal District of Philadelphia. Experts expect that in March the index will slow from 25.8 to 23.0. We recommend you to take into account the difference between the actual value and the forecasted one.

US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Source: tradingeconomics.com
The analysis of the CME exchange data (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) allowed to distinguish the option levels of major players' interest for March 09 – April 06:
  • The resistance zone – 1.2550-1.2650
  • The offer zone – 1.2100-1.2200
  • The option balance level – 1.2375
EUR/USD Pattern

There is an ambiguous technical pattern on the EUR/USD currency pair. At the moment, the quotes are in a sideways trend. The price is testing the option balance level of 1.2375. Indicators do not send accurate signals. We recommend opening positions from the key levels.

If the price fixes above the round level of 1.24000, the growth of the EUR/USD currency pair is expected. The movement is tending potentially to the key offer zone of 1.24750-1.25250.

Alternative option. If the EUR/USD quotes are below 1.23250, you need to look for entry points to open short positions. The movement is tending to the monthly control zone of 1.2200-1.2100.

When following the positions, we recommend using a trailing stop.

by JustForex, 2018.03.14

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