Forecast for the EUR/USD currency pair
Prev Opening: 1.08860
Chg. % Of the last day: +0.91
Daily range: 1.09695 – 1.09902
52-week range: 1.0366 – 1.1616
Yesterday, aggressive purchases were observed on EUR/USD. The euro added more than 100 points. This is due to the victory of Emmanuel Macron at the debate with Marin Le Pen. We want to remind you that the second round of the presidential elections in France will be held this Sunday, May 7. Today, the attention is focused on the report on the labor market in the United States. Preliminary data from ADP was quite positive. At the same time, investors are wary, as the latest statistics from the United States was ambiguous. At the moment, the key trading range is 1.09350-1.09850.
The MACD histogram is in the positive area, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy EUR/USD.
Stochastic Oscillator has fixed in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates the correction of the EUR/USD currency pair.
News background on the US economy:
– change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector of the country (15:30 GMT+3:00);
– average hourly wage (15:30 GMT+3:00);
– the proportion of the economically active population (15:30 GMT+3:00);
– the unemployment rate (15:30 GMT+3:00).
Also at 20:30 (GMT+3:00) the Fed Chairman will give a speech.
Support levels: 1.09350, 1.08650
Resistance levels: 1.09850
If economic reports from the US are weak, the growth of the EUR/USD currency pair may continue. The movement is tending potentially to 1.10500.
An alternative may be a downward trend on EUR/USD to a round level of 1.09000.
Forecast for the GBP/USD currency pair
Chg. % of the last day: +0.42
Daily range: 1.28996 – 1.29419
52-week range: 1.1986 – 1.5020
During yesterday’s trading, the pound recovered most of the losses, after a significant decline on Wednesday, May 03. The growth of the GBP/USD quotations exceeded 0.40%. The currency of Britain was supported by positive data on business activity in the services sector. At the moment, GBP/USD is being traded near the key resistance of 1.29500. We are waiting for statistics from the USA.
Stochastic Oscillator is near the overbought zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which gives a weak signal to buy GBP/USD.
There are no important economic reports from the UK today.
Support levels: 1.29000, 1.28500
Resistance levels: 1.29500
If the statistics from the US is positive, a downward trend may develop on the GBP/USD currency pair. The target movement level is 1.28700-1.28500.
An alternative may be further growth of the GBP/USD quotations to the round level of 1.30000.
Forecast for USD/CAD
Prev Opening: 1.37290
Chg. % of the last day: +0.15
The daily range: 1.37456 – 1.37935
52-week range: 1.2458 – 1.4692
Pressure on the Canadian dollar continues to have negative dynamics in the market of “black gold”. Yesterday, futures for WTI crude oil fell sharply (-4.81%). USD/CAD has overcome and consolidated above the key resistance 1.37500. Participants in financial markets are waiting for the data on the US and Canadian labor market.
The signals of the indicators vary. The MACD histogram is located in the positive area and continues to rise, which indicates further growth of the USD/CAD quotes.
Stochastic Oscillator has begun to exit the overbought zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates a correction on USD/CAD.
Economic reports from Canada on 05/05/2017:
– change in employment (15:30 GMT+3:00);
– the unemployment rate (15:30 GMT+3:00);
– Ivey index of business activity (17:00 GMT+3:00).
It is also necessary to pay attention to the news background from the United States.
Support levels: 1.37500, 1.36500
Resistance levels: 1.38000
Yesterday’s forecast was quite accurate. We recommend waiting for the publication of statistical data. It is better to open positions from key levels.
If the price consolidates above the round level of 1.38000, the growth of the USD/CAD currency pair may continue. The movement is tending potentially to 1.38500-1.38750.
An alternative may be a correction movement on USD/CAD to 1.36750-1.36500.
Forecast for USD/JPY currency pair
Prev Opening: 112.729
Chg. % of the last day: -0.26
Daily range: 112.084 – 112.651
52-week range: 99.08 – 123.69
Yesterday the USD/JPY currency pair retained a round level of 113.000, which caused a correction in the afternoon. Trading in the Asian session was calm. At the moment, the yen is testing the 112.250 support level. We expect data on the labor market in the United States.
The signals of the indicators vary. The MACD histogram has fixed in the negative zone and below the signal line, which indicates a further correction on USD/JPY.
Stochastic Oscillator is near the oversold zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates purchases on USD/JPY.
There is no important news on the economy of Japan today.
Support levels: 112.250, 111.700
Resistance levels: 113.000
If the statistics from the US turns out to be weak, the correction on USD/JPY may continue to the level of 111.500.
An alternative option may be the growth of the USD/JPY currency pair. The movement is tending potentially to the round level is 113,000.