Week's main events (July 4 – July 8)

This week promises to be volatile due to a lot of significant events. The US Nonfarm Payrolls is the week’s main event, as it is one of the most important parameters for the Fed’s monetary policy decision. Economists believe the US employment report will be worse than the previous month, but the unemployment rate will not change. FOMC protocol on Wednesday will give investors some insight into how FED policymakers see the future trajectory of interest rates as markets remain focused on the prospect of a recession. The European Central Bank is to publish the minutes of its June meeting on Thursday when it announced plans to deliver its first interest rate hike. The Reserve Bank of Australia will hold an interest rate meeting. Analysts predict that the bank will raise the rate by 0.5%. As a rule, rising interest rates are accompanied by a strengthening national currency.

Monday, July 4
On Monday is Independence Day in the United States, a bank holiday, so volatility in the financial markets will be low. At the European session, it is worth paying attention to the inflation rate in Switzerland. Last month the National Bank of Switzerland unexpectedly raised the interest rate so that higher inflation may strengthen the franc.
Main events of the day:
  • – Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • - Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey (m/m) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, July 5
Tuesday will bring various statistics for many countries. The main event will be the Interest Rate Decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Analytics expects the RBA to aggressively raise interest rates by 0.5%. Volatility in currency pairs with the Australian dollar will increase. Traders should also pay attention to the speech of the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, on future policy.
Main events of the day:
  • – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BoE Financial Stability Report (m/m) at 12:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 13:00 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, July 6
On Wednesday, investors will focus on the US FOMC Meeting Minutes. This report is published for the previous month. It allows traders to analyze the actions of Fed policymakers regarding further interest rate increases, as well as to understand the mood that is present inside. Volatility in currency pairs with the US dollar will increase. European countries will report on the Services PMI. Investors should also pay attention to the speeches of the FOMC officials, which help to understand what sentiment prevails within the Federal Reserve at the moment.
Main events of the day:
  • – UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone EU Economic Forecasts (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3).
Thursday, July 7
On Thursday, traders will mainly focus on the Crude Oil and Natural Gas Reserves data. The oil and gas market is very uncertain right now. Surprises are possible. The volatility of WTI and BRENT oil and natural gas prices could be very volatile. Investors should also keep a close eye on the Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting. The ECB will raise interest rates next week. The current forecast is for a 0.25% hike. But given the fact that inflation in the Eurozone jumped to 8.6% year-on-year last week, the ECB may revise its policy towards a more aggressive tightening.
Main events of the day:
  • – Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Waller Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3).
Friday, July 8
The most important on Friday is the Nonfarm Payrolls release. This data can trigger increased volatility in the market, and the Fed takes this indicator into account to adjust monetary policy. Economists expect to add 270,000 jobs in June, down from 390,000 the previous month but still strong. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 3.6%. Traders should also keep a close eye on the Unemployment Rate in Canada.
Main events of the day:
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 14:55 (GMT+3);
  • – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3).

by Justforex, 2022.07.04

We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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