Week's main events (April 4 – April 8)

Last week, investors' attention was focused on inflation data in European countries, US labor market data, geopolitics, and the OPEC+ meeting. This week will be calmer in terms of economic events. The Reserve Bank of Australia will update its interest rate on Tuesday. Analysts do not expect any surprises and believe that the rate will remain unchanged. The March FOMC minutes will be released on Wednesday, where investors can see signs that the Fed will aggressively raise interest rates. Analysts believe that improving labor market indicators contribute to the Fed's half-percent rate hike at its next meeting on May 4. Currently, the probability of such a scenario is estimated at 75.5%. This could lead to a sharp surge in volatility this week. Investors' attention should also be focused on the ECB minutes and speeches by ECB officials. A sharp rise in inflation in Europe could lead to a revision of the ECB's monetary policy. It should also be noted that financial markets are now very sensitive to news of the war in Ukraine and the situation in the oil market.

Monday, April 4
On Monday, investors should pay attention to the speech of the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey. The UK has suspended interest rate hikes, but rising consumer prices may force politicians to reconsider their decision. In addition, the Bank of Canada will release its Business Outlook, and positive data may raise expectations for a half-percent rate hike at its next meeting on April 13. It’s a bank holiday in China.
Main events of the day:
  • – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BoE Gov Bailey’s Speech at 12:05 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, April 5
On Tuesday, traders will focus mainly on the Interest Rate Decision and the Reserve Bank of Australia Statement. No surprises are expected, but this release will increase the volatility for currency pairs with the Australian dollar. There will also be several reports of PMI services from different countries, but their impact on the market will be weak. It’s a bank holiday in China and Hong Kong.
Main events of the day:
  • – Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 07:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia RBA Rate Statement at 07:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Services (m/m) PMI at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Services (m/m) PMI at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
  • – US FOMC Member Brainard Speaks at 18:05 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, April 6
The FOMC protocol for March will be the main event on Wednesday. Analysts expect to see signals for a more aggressive interest rate hike from the Fed. Volatility will rise sharply. Investors should also closely monitor the US Crude Oil Reserves. The situation in the energy market is difficult now. On the one hand, declining reserves could exacerbate already large energy shortages, especially in Europe. On the other hand, the United States and its partners are ready to release strategic reserves to stop rising oil prices.
Main events of the day:
  • – UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3).
Thursday, April 7
Thursday will bring various statistics for many countries. The ECB is due to publish the minutes of its March meeting, with just over a week left until the next meeting on April 14. Last week, inflation in the Eurozone reached an annual level of 7.5%, increasing pressure on the ECB to take action to curb inflation even as economic growth slows. Germany will publish data on industrial production. Analysts expect a sharp decline amid a jump in commodity prices. Fed officials are expected to speak in the US, whose verbal interventions significantly impact the dollar index.
Main events of the day:
  • – Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
  • – German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 23:05 (GMT+3).
Friday, April 8
Not much news is expected on Friday. The main event to watch is the unemployment rate in Canada. An improving labor market will increase the likelihood that the Bank of Canada will start to tighten its monetary policy.
Main events of the day:
  • – Japan Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

by Justforex, 2022.04.04

We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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