Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are taking place in Istanbul today. Investors are optimistic, but analysts are not

Yesterday, all three US indices closed in the green zone. Dow Jones (US30) gained 0.27%, S&P 500 (US500) added 0.71%, the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.31% on Monday. US government bond yields remain close to a three-year high as investors gear up for the Federal Reserve's rate hike campaign. This plays in favor of a stronger dollar index against other currencies.

US President Joe Biden submitted to Congress a budget proposal for the next fiscal year beginning October 1. Under Biden's budget plan, corporate executives would be required to own the company's shares they received for several years after purchasing it and would be prohibited from selling shares for several years after the share buyback. This would deprive corporations of using profits to buy back shares for the benefit of executives. The plan also includes $5.79 trillion in defense spending, aid to Ukraine, higher taxes on the richest Americans and companies, and a reduction in the national deficit.

Tesla will seek shareholder approval for a share split to pave the way for dividend payments to shareholders. Yesterday, the company's shares increased by 8% on this news.

Bloomberg will disconnect Russian users from its terminal. Access to the terminals has already been blocked for several Russian banks that have fallen under Western sanctions.

Major European indices were mostly on the rise yesterday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.79% yesterday, French CAC 40 (FR 40) added 0.54%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.42%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) decreased by 0.14%. Investors continue to monitor the geopolitical situation in Ukraine. The next round of talks between the delegations of Ukraine and Russia is taking place in Istanbul today. This will be the fourth attempt to find a common language. The last three attempts were unsuccessful. But judging by the preliminary comments of the Ukrainian and Russian Foreign Ministries representatives, the negotiations will not be final, and investors should not expect a settlement agreement. But investors are optimistic because almost everyone involved, including Europe, is losing the war in Ukraine financially and economically. The US and China are in a better position, but even there, the negative economic impact of the war is present.

The EU expanded sanctions against Russia through the "50% rule". Companies in which two or more sanctioned individuals jointly own the majority of shares are now blacklisted, even if none of them owns more than 50%. The sanctions "50% rule" has been in effect in the US since 2008. It is not yet applied in the EU.

The energy sector has had the most impact on the market as a whole, as concerns that the lockdown in China could dampen demand. On the contrary, peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have somewhat cooled fears of supply disruptions. This situation allowed oil prices to correct, but it should be noted that this is a temporary phenomenon as the market deficit persist.

Asian markets traded without a single trend yesterday. Japan's Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.73% yesterday, Hong Kong's Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.31%, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) added 0.08%. Today, stock indices in the Asia-Pacific region (APR) are rising. Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.7% in February from 2.8% a month earlier. Investors are also watching the spread of the coronavirus in Shanghai, one of China's largest industrial and commercial centers. A nine-day lockdown was imposed the day before, the largest in two years. The Shanghai lockdown will be divided into two phases. Shanghai's Pudong economic region and surrounding areas will be closed from Monday to Friday in the first phase. The second phase will begin on Friday when the central part of Shanghai will be closed for lockdown. During these periods, residents will be required to stay at home, offices and businesses not considered essential will be closed, and public transport will be suspended. Also, during the lockdown, mass testing for COVID-19 is carried out in the city.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,575.52 +32.46 (+0.71%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,955.89 +94.65 (+0.27%)

DAX (DE40) 14,417.37 +111.61 (+0.78%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,473.14 -10.21 (-0.14%)

USD Index 99.15 +0.36 (+0.37%)

Important events for today:
  • – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speech at 16:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US CB Consumer Confidence at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

by Justforex, 2022.03.29

We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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