Russia and Belarus attack the territory of Ukraine

At the end of last week, a war broke out between Russia and Ukraine, with Russia acting as the aggressor. Russia began bombing the military and civilian infrastructure of Ukraine on the morning of February 24. Also, yesterday it was officially confirmed that cruise missiles were launched on the territory of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus. Thus, Belarus becomes an accomplice to military action against Ukraine and may be subject to the same sanctions as Russia.

What sanctions and restrictions are already in place against Russia?
  • 1. Russia will be disconnected from the international banking system Swift. This has already been decided and will be implemented in the coming days.
  • 2. PayPal has frozen withdrawals of funds to Russian bank cards.
  • 3. Germany decided to refuse Russian gas. Berlin will switch to supplies from the US.
  • 4. The EU has banned Russian airlines from flying through the EU. The United Kingdom and Canada joined. Aeroflot has canceled all flights to Europe from today.
  • 5. Russians will no longer receive a "golden passport," that is, European citizenship, in exchange for investments in Germany.
  • 6. Several European countries have suspended the issuance of visas for Russian citizens.
  • 7. Several European countries have suspended the issuance of residence permits for Russian citizens.
  • 8. About half of the Russian Central Bank's financial reserves will be frozen.
  • 9. Visa and MasterCard cards issued by sanctioned Russian banks will stop working abroad.
  • 10. Nord Stream 2 will be frozen.
  • 11. Restrictions on the export of high-tech products from Russia.
  • 12. Restrictions on the import of Intel and AMD semiconductors into Russia.
  • 13. Restrictions on trading for Russian investors through US brokers.
  • 14. Restrictions on trading in foreign financial instruments.
  • 15. Ban on Russian channels and radio in European countries.
  • 16. Prohibition of holding international sports competitions in Russia.
  • 17. Turkey banned the passage of Russian ships to the Black Sea.
  • 18. Foreign companies leave Russian concerns.
  • 19. American services Amazon and Netflix stop accepting Russian bank cards.
Sanctions are being prepared:
  • – The EU is considering sanctions against Dmitry Peskov, Alisher Usmanov, Mikhail Fridman, Alexei Mordashov, and Sergei Roldugin.
  • – Ukraine asked Visa and Mastercard to disconnect their cards from all Russian banks completely;
  • – Belarus can also be disconnected from SWIFT, and other sanctions are being considered.

Against the backdrop of such harsh sanctions yesterday, Russia began to scare Ukraine, NATO countries, and the entire world community with nuclear weapons. It becomes clear the Russian leadership has gone mad. At the same time, the Russian media disseminate false propaganda inside the country that this "military operation" against the "Nazi" regime in Kyiv is a forced measure, where Russia attacks only military infrastructure and that Russia has practically no losses. But it's all lies. According to official Ukrainian figures, more than 5,000 Russian soldiers have already been killed. Russian mothers don't even know that their children are dying in the war in Ukraine because their mobile phones are taken away before Russian soldiers are sent to war, and most soldiers don't even know where they are going.

Roskomnadzor blocks Russians' access to Ukrainian and major foreign resources. As a result, Russia is committing a crime against Ukraine and its own citizens. How will it all end? It is difficult to predict something, but now almost the whole world is against Russia. Everyone sees that Russia is the aggressor. This will definitely end badly for Russia and ordinary Russian citizens because they already feel the sanctions' effects. The Russian ruble fell to its lowest level ever. The temporary drop was 40% to 117.8 per dollar. The ruble at the open stood at 90 rubles per dollar. The Central Bank of Russia raised the interest rate to 20% and carried out foreign exchange transactions to maintain the exchange rate. Sberbank has banned the withdrawal of funds from investment accounts for the next ten days. Today, the first talks between Russia and Ukraine will occur in Belarus, which is already the aggressor against Ukraine.

The US stock indices closed Friday with solid growth. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) may refrain from a more aggressive rate hike in March amid geopolitical risks associated with Russia's attack on Ukraine. At the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 2.51% (-1.5% for the week), the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 2.24% (-2.08% for the week), and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.24% (-2.2% for the week). But all three major indices closed the week with losses.

European stock indices also closed in the green zone on Friday, following the US indices. German DAX (DE30) jumped by 3.67% (-4.08% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) gained 3.55% (-3.32% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 3.51% (-1.76% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) was up 3.91% (-0.93% for the week).

Gold continues to be at highs due to huge inflationary risks. However, there was a slight drop in precious metal prices on Friday. The Fed's postponement of an aggressive interest rate hike positively affected the US stock market and negatively for gold. Now everything will depend on how the situation in Ukraine develops further.

The war in Eastern Europe fuels fears that oil supplies from Russia could be disrupted, sending Brent crude futures up to $102.14 last week. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures jumped to $96.17 a barrel. The oil company British Petroleum withdrew from the Russian oil concerns, losing about $25 billion in the process. ExxonMobil, according to preliminary information, is next in line.

Asian markets have been rising since the opening today. Japan's Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 0.19% (last week's -0.91%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.5% (last week's -4.39%), Australia's S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) jumped 0.73% today (last week's -2.55%).

In the commodities market, wheat futures (+6.19%), WTI oil (+5.81%), palladium (+5.76%), corn (+4.04%), soybeans (+2.76%), and natural gas (+2.66%) showed the biggest gains by the end of the week. Sugar futures showed the biggest drop (-1.51%).

The war in Ukraine is likely to lead to a significant increase in energy prices, resulting in immediate inflationary effects and a serious slowdown in global economic growth.

At the commodities market, futures on natural gas (+12.86%), palladium (+7.13%), platinum (+4.99%), lumber (+4.04%), gold (+3.19%), and silver (+2.49%) showed the biggest gains by the end of the week. Cocoa futures (-6.15%), heating oil (-3.83%), sugar (-3.45%), WTI oil (-2.77%) and coffee (-2.54%) showed the biggest drop.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,384.65 +95.95 (+2.24%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,058.75 +834.92 (+2.51%)

DAX (DE40) 14,567.23 +515.13 (+3.67%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,489.46 +282.08 (+3.91%)

USD Index 96.54 -0.60 (-0.61%)

Important events for today:
  • – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 17:50 (GMT+2).

by Justforex, 2022.02.28

We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Open Account

Get Free Analytics

* required fields