Rising energy prices threaten economic recovery in the US, Europe, and Asian countries

Yesterday, Columbus Day was celebrated in the United States, but the stock exchanges were open. Only US Treasuries were not traded. The US indices decreased by the end of the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.72%, the S&P 500 lost 0.69% and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.64%. Investors continue to monitor the problem of the US debt ceiling. Refusal of the Republicans to approve the increase in the national debt limit in December will be a "disaster" for the US. But analysts are confident that politicians will find a common ground. The start of the third-quarter earnings season will allow investors to gauge the impact of rising inflation, supply chain problems, labor shortages, and a jump in energy prices on companies' performance. Wall Street analysts expect S&P 500 index companies' third-quarter earnings to rise 28%, compared with the same period last year. However, year-end forecasts will be weak.

Pharmaceutical companies Merck and Ridgeback filed requests with the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to approve a medicine against COVID-19. They did it after positive results from a study of the Molnupiravir drug.

US airline Southwest Airlines is facing a shortage of flight crews.

European stock indices were mostly down yesterday. German DAX decreased by 0.05%, French CAC 40 lost 0.16%, Italian FTSE MIB fell 0.46% and Spanish IBEX 35 lost 0.63%. The exception was the British FTSE 100, which increased by 0.72%. Rising energy prices could lead to higher inflation in the coming months. It may limit consumer spending on other products and services and ultimately slow the US, European and Asian economic recovery to the point of recession.

The Turkish lira decreased to 9 liras against the dollar for the first time in history. The Turkish lira is now the world's worst-performing currency in 2021 (-17.4% YTD). But Turkey's leader Erdogan said yesterday that Turkey's economy would get stronger every day.

WTI crude oil jumped above $82 amid the global energy crisis, hitting a 7-year high. Fuel, coal, and natural gas prices are skyrocketing in Europe and Asia. Fossil fuel stocks run out ahead of winter, prompting a switch to petroleum products such as diesel and kerosene. The US supports calls for OPEC+ to increase production to support the global economic recovery. In turn, Qatar announces that it will not rejoin OPEC+ because it contradicts state policy.

Industrial metal prices continue to rise. The aluminum price on LME exceeded $3,000 per ton for the first time since July 2008.

The global auto industry is experiencing the sharpest drop in production since May 2020, as parts shortages hit all production facilities.

The Coffee Federation announces that rising coffee prices have caused widespread supply chain disruptions around the world. As many as 1 million bags, or nearly 10% of Colombia's coffee crop, cannot get to distributors.

Another Chinese developer, Sinic is likely to default on $250 million in bonds. At the same time, China Evergrande bondholders again failed to receive coupon payments at the end of the US trading day. China's leader Xi Jinping has launched the largest financial probe of the real estate sector since he came to power. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley has upgraded its view on China's property sector to "attractive" as it sees an increasing likelihood of easing measures considering default risks and weakness in the housing market.

Thailand softened entry rules for vaccinated tourists. Thailand will lift quarantine restrictions for vaccinated visitors from certain countries in November.

Japan's new Prime Minister Kishida claims that his country's sovereignty also extends to the Kuril Islands. Kishida wants to resolve the territorial disputes now rather than pass it to the next generations.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 4,361.19 −30.15 (−0.69%)

Dow Jones 34,496.06 −250.19 (−0.72%)

DAX 15,199.14 −6.99 (−0.05%)

FTSE 100 7,146.85 +51.30 (+0.72%)

USD Index 94.39 +0.33 (+0.35%)

Important events for today:
  • – Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Clarida’s Speech at 18:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bostic’s Speech at 19:30 (GMT+3).

by Justforex, 2021.10.12

We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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