The energy crisis in Europe and Asia could significantly slow down the global economic recovery

The US stock market closed without a single trend yesterday. The Dow Jones index increased by 0.21%, thanks to the growth of the banking sector. The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.28%, and the Nasdaq technology index lost 0.52%. Investors are clearly leaving technology stocks and switching to companies associated with economic growth. This is a sign that investors are expecting the market to rise soon. The energy sector is also in the focus of investors, as due to the increase in oil and natural gas prices, energy stocks are growing.

There is a political conflict between the Democrats and Republicans in the US Parliament over the national debt limit. The Republican Party is blocking a bill that ties government funding to the debt ceiling.

Federal Reserve member Williams says that the Fed does not expect the labor market to improve much in September and October. The Fed has recently made significant progress in curbing inflation and job creation. But if the US doesn't solve the national debt problem, the Fed won't be able to repair the damage to the economy. Fed member Evans says that the central bank predicts that the unemployment rate in the United States will fall to 5% by the end of 2021 and that the labor market will be strong next year.

Supply chain problems will reduce global auto production in the near term. Goldman Sachs cut its forecast for global auto production for 2021 and 2022 to 75 million and 85 million, respectively.

The European stock market closed in the green area yesterday. British FTSE 100 and French CAC 40 increased by 0.2%, German DAX increased by 0.27%, Italian FTSE MIB and Spanish IBEX 35 added 0.6% and 1.5%, respectively. Germany's federal election will be followed by lengthy coalition talks, extending a period of policy uncertainty beyond the election. But Olaf Scholz, the chancellor candidate of the winning Social Democratic Party (SPD), expressed hope that the new German government would be formed before Christmas.

The 10-year US yield exceeded 1.5%, its highest level since June, and the two-year yield reached an 18-month high. Gold and silver prices are set to decline amid rising government bond yields.

Oil is rising amid signs of a global energy crisis, while natural gas prices are just "skyrocketing to space" as inventory levels remain critically low ahead of the heating season. US natural gas futures increased by more than 5% yesterday and more than 17% in the last 2 trading sessions. The growth of demand for natural gas is likely to stimulate oil demand, as energy companies are moving to a different type of fuel.

Troubled Chinese real estate developer Evergrande may sell a 50% stake in its insurance department for $600 million. In addition to problems with the real estate market, China is also facing an energy crisis that could come as a shock to global supply chains as the world's largest exporter's businesses are forced to save energy by cutting production.

India's large fleet of coal-fired power plants is at dangerously low inventory levels, which could force the country to buy expensive batches of fuel or risk power outages. More than 60% of coal-fired capacity has low fuel reserves.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 4,443.11 −12.37 (−0.28%)

Dow Jones 34,869.37 +71.37 (+0.21%)

DAX 15,573.88 +42.13 (+0.27%)

FTSE 100 7,063.40 +11.92 (+0.17%)

USD Index 93.40 +0.07 (+0.08%)

Important events for today:
  • – Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde’s Speech at 15:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3)
  • – US Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Speech at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bowman’s Speech at 20:40 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bostic’s Speech at 22:00 (GMT+3).

by Justforex, 2021.09.28

We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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