France announces a new four-week lockdown. The stock market ignores the situation in Europe

On Wednesday and the Asian session on Thursday, there were many events, both positive and negative, which investors have yet to assess. Talking about negative events, there will be a new lockdown in France, which will last 4 weeks starting from Saturday, April 3. Schools and about 150,000 shops will be closed. The Treasury Department announced that the damage of the new quarantine, including layoffs and tax breaks, would rise to €11 billion a month from €7.2 billion earlier. Against this background, European currencies remain under pressure, while the dollar index continues to grow.

In the US, the situation is the opposite. According to Bloomberg Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker, the American healthcare system provided 45 vaccines for every 100 people, while in Europe this figure is 3 times lower. Against this background, investors' expectations for the growth of the US economy are significantly higher. This is also confirmed by the data of the ADP company, which generally met the expectations of economists.

The private sector created the largest number of workplaces in six months in March, informing that the rising number of Covid-19 vaccinations and resumption of business are stimulating the hiring process. The headcount increased by 517,000 in March, and the February figures were revised to 176,000. According to the mid-point forecast of economists from Bloomberg, the growth was 550,000.

ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said that the increase in workplaces in the service sector surpassed the recent monthly average level. This sector has the most opportunities for improvement as businesses continue to start working and the vaccine is readily available.

Amid mixed events, the stock market has stalled, but it still maintains the propensity towards growth. Economists state that despite the troubles in Europe, fundamentals indicate a strong likelihood of a continuation of the northern rally. Treasury yield is firmly above 1.70%. The S&P 500 is slowly approaching annual highs.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 3,975.12 +7.62 (+0.19%)

Dow Jones 32,981.55 -85.41 (-0.26%)

DAX 15,008.34 -0.27 (-0.07%)

FTSE 100 6,713.63 -58.49 (-0.86%)

USD Index 93.317 +0.081 (+0.09%)

Important events:
  • – Tankan Large Manufacturers Sentiment Index (1q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Mar) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (Mar) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – OPEC+ meeting at 13:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – ISM US Manufacturing PMI (Mar) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

by Justforex, 2021.04.01

We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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