The stock market is declining in anticipation of friction from the adoption of the additional stimulus package in the US

On Thursday, the market was awaiting details of Joe Biden's plan for economic aid. The emergence of detailed information has not yet been able to inspire investors to buy risky assets. The plan includes a new wave of household spending by increasing direct payments. It also provides for an increase in unemployment benefits and the amount of funds for state and local authorities, as well as an expansion of vaccination programs and testing for coronavirus. The need to establish a federal minimum wage of $15 per hour and strengthen protection against eviction of citizens from occupied housing in case of impossibility of payment is indicated.

The market is not yet responding to the expected aid package, as it must be passed in Congress, and the numbers are close to those previously published in the media. Investors took a wait and see attitude in anticipation of the problems associated with the adoption of such a package. Most traders are convinced that Republican opposition will discourage the adoption of this amount of incentive.

Meanwhile, the publication of data on economic growth continues in Europe. Following Germany, Great Britain reported. The economy of foggy Albion has proved to be more resilient than expected. The decline in GDP in monthly terms by 2.6% was better than expected. This means that the economy will show growth in the fourth quarter, unless there is a contraction of more than 1% in December.

The numbers show that the economy has been better adapted to the second round of quarantine than in the first half of 2020. However, this month, the economy is expected to be drastically hit, when many stores will be closed. The annual volume of GDP contraction still remains huge. According to preliminary estimates, the losses amount to 8.5%.

Given this background, the stock market is gradually declining. Treasury yield is stable at 1.10%.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 3,776.88 -14.37 (-0.38%)

Dow Jones 30,991.52 -68.95 (-0.22%)

DAX 13,910.30 -78.40 (-0.56%)

FTSE 100 6,751.29 -50.67 (-0.74%)

USD Index 90.343 +0.128 (+0.14%)

Important events:
  • – 10:00 (GMT+2) UK GDP (m/m);
  • – 10:00 (GMT+2) UK Manufacturing Output (MoM) (Nov);
  • – 16:30 (GMT+2) US Retail Sales Baseline (MoM).

by Justforex, 2021.01.15

We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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