Since late April, trading on currency majors has been very active. At the same time, a unidirectional trend is not observed. The dollar index (#DX) is consolidating in the range of 97.00-97.50. Demand for the greenback resumed after the Fed meeting. The regulator, as expected, kept the key marks of monetary policy at the same level. The Central Bank noted the steady growth of the economy, the stability of the labor market and optimistic expectations regarding the acceleration of inflation.
At the moment, investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the publication of labor statistics in the US for April on Friday, May 3 at 15:30 (GMT+3:00). This report may have a significant impact on the dynamics and further alignment of forces on majors.
Recent economic releases from the US were ambiguous. Preliminary data from ADP indicated an increase in the number of people employed in the nonfarm sector of the country by 275K compared to market expectations of 181K. The consumer confidence index rose to 129.2, which was higher than the forecasted value of 126.0. At the same time, the economic activity index in the US non-manufacturing sector from ISM slowed down from 55.3 to 52.8.
Experts expect mixed data on the labor market for April: the number of people employed in the US nonfarm sector will slow down from 196,000 to 185,000; the growth of the average hourly earnings will be 0.3% (m/m) in comparison to the previous value of 0.1% (m/m); the unemployment rate will remain at the same level of 3.8%. We recommend paying attention to the difference between the actual and forecasted values.
Let's consider the current technical pattern on the EUR/USD currency pair
- Support levels: 1.11850, 1.11250, 1.11000
- Resistance levels: 1.12250, 1.12600, 1.13000
- - the price has crossed 50 MA and 200 MA;
- - the MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but below the signal line.
At the moment, the EUR/USD currency pair is consolidating. The technical pattern is ambiguous. The trading instrument is testing local support and resistance levels: 1.11850 and 1.12250, respectively. Indicators do not send accurate signals:
We recommend opening positions from the key levels.
If statistics from the US turn out to be positive, we expect a fall in the EUR/USD quotes. The movement is tending to 1.11300-1.11000.
An alternative may be the recovery of the EUR/USD currency pair to 1.12800-1.13200.
Confirmations and entry points to the market should be looked for on lower timeframes. When tracking positions, we recommend using a trailing stop.
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.Open Account